![]() ![]() In retrospect, it was folly to believe that with data on about 30 countries it was possible to estimate a threshold beyond which debt became dangerous. ![]() The extrapolation from past experience to future outlook is always deeply problematic and needs to be done with great care. It was a data regularity until it wasn’t. Trillions of dollars have been lost and millions have been unemployed because the lesson was learned from 60 years of experience between 19 that “American house prices in aggregate always go up.” This was no data problem or misanalysis. What sort of music do you listen to? hugegenic in uk Second, all participants in policy debates should retain a healthy skepticism about retrospective statistical analysis.
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